By Dr Mohan Kumar
August 19th, 2025
As summits go, the one in Anchorage, Alaska between Presidents Trump and Putin was terribly significant from a geopolitical perspective. Still, it is important to recognize what the summit achieved and what it did not.
There is widespread consensus that the summit represented the “de-pariahfication” (I am making up this word) of Russia and its return to global centre stage as a great power. President Putin, against whom there is an arrest warrant by the International Criminal Court (ICC), also comes in from the cold and almost instantaneously becomes persona grata. The more substantive gains for Russia are also obvious. One, there is no immediate cease fire agreement which would not have made sense for Russia which is still winning the war. Second and more important, there was agreement at least between the two leaders that the “root causes” of the Ukraine conflict must be dealt with. This has been a longstanding demand of President Putin. Third, to quote Putin: “All of Russia’s legitimate concerns must be taken into account, and a fair balance in the security sphere in Europe and the world as a whole must be restored”. India was one of the earliest countries to say at the UN that the “legitimate security interests” of Russia must be taken into account in any final settlement of the conflict in Ukraine. We were then persuaded to drop this expression in our statements at the UN due to Western pressure. It is a matter of ironical satisfaction that this has now been accepted by the US. Note that Putin also talks of “all Russia’s legitimate concerns” which will doubtless include removal of international sanctions against it and re-establishment of normal ties between Russia and the US. There is already talk of resumption of direct air travel and restoration of the strength of the diplomatic missions between Russia and the US.
The Alaska summit must be viewed as an incipient peace process than as a one-off meeting that produced concrete outcomes. For instance, this summit is reportedly to be followed by a one-on-one meeting between Presidents Putin and Zelensky (something the Kremlin is yet to agree to) eventually to be concluded with some kind of a framework peace agreement at a trilateral summit in the near future involving Trump, Putin and Zelensky. The Alaska summit did produce understandings but these are not final and may be reneged upon by the principals at any point in the future. Even so, President Trump stated that he and President Putin had agreed on many things except one or two big things which led him to declare tautologically that “there is no deal until there is a deal”! In the absence of a Joint Statement or written agreements, one can only speculate on the content of the Alaska summit meeting.
What could the two big things be that are outstanding? One might be the interpretation of what constitutes Russia’s security interests. The real fundamental Russian security interest relates to preventing Ukraine from joining NATO. So that would be non-negotiable from Putin’s perspective. Having secured that understanding, Putin did make a concession by saying that the security interests of Ukraine would also be taken into account. This could involve the limited presence of Western, non-NATO troops in Ukraine, which Putin may have agreeed to in principle. The EU and Ukraine would ideally want American troops to be part of this and wish to see an “Article 5-kind” of security guarantee. Following the Alaska Summit, alarmed European leaders (who were not part of the Alaska meeting) met with Trump along with Zelensky and issued a joint statement: We are clear that Ukraine must have ironclad security guarantees to effectively defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity, the leaders of Germany, France, Britain, Poland, Italy, Finland and the European Union institutions said in the statement and welcomed President Trump’s statement that the US is prepared to give security guarantees. It remains to be seen whether Russia can agree to this or will seek to dilute it. Reports attributed to Putin say that Russia has committed to not attacking or seizing terrritories from other countries on its border. This has been an obsession of the EU which firmly believes that Putin will attack the Baltic states before long and that his ultimate objective is the reconstruction of the erstwhile Soviet Empire.
The second big outstanding issue is the question related to territorial swap. This is arguably the most difficult to achieve for negotiators on both sides. Putin has let it be known that he wants the entire Donbas region for Russia. This means really Donetsk where Russia occupies 70 per cent of the territory. Luhansk is largely under Russian control anyway. In addition to this, Crimea too is non-negotiable for Russia. In return, Ukraine gets to maintain the fontlines in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, but little else. This will be tough for Zelensky and EU to swallow, but they may have little choice in the matter. The Ukrainian constitution itself may have to be amended for this purpose and Zelensky’s political future could be on the line.
One may ask what is in it for President Trump (and the US) in all of this. There is talk of Zelensky having agreed to buy American military hardware. The Limousine ride where only Trump and Putin were present may have some hidden deals, who knows. But more than anything else, Trump believes himself to be the ultimate “anti-war” President. His desire for the Nobel Peace Prize is an open secret. But if by some miracle he does bring the intractable conflict in Ukraine to a close, he will have strengthened his claim to that prize.
Ambassador Dr Mohan Kumar is Director General of the newly established Motwani Jadeja Institute for American Studies at OP Jindal Global University.