By Dr Mohan Kumar

September 30th, 2025

The last week saw the unveiling of a Trump doctrine, if there is one such. President Trump made important moves with regard to two major theatres. One, the European theatre, with major implications for the trans-atlantic partnership and for the war in Ukraine. It may be recalled that President Trump began by being very harsh on Ukraine and its leader, President Zelensky, with the infamous slanging match and subsequent meltdown in the their meeting witnessed by all and sundry in February this year at the Oval Office. Then, President Trump had said Ukraine held no cards in the conflict with Russia. Fast forward to August this year when the Alaska summit meeting between Presidents Trump and Putin took place. The summit had the effect of rehabilitating Putin and led to rising hopes of a breakthrough in the war in Ukraine in the form of a lasting ceasefire. Instead, what has happened is Putin has decided to hang tough and both sides i.e. Russia and Ukraine have militarily attacked each other with relative impunity. The intensity of Russian attacks seems to be on the rise, if anything. The fact that Putin has steadfastly refused a ceasefire appears to have irritated Trump no end, leading the latter now to make a policy U-turn and say on September 23 (following the meeting with President Zelensky on the margins of the UNGA): “After seeing the economic trouble the war is causing Russia, I think Ukraine, with the support of the European Union (emphasis mine), is in a position to fight and win all of Ukraine back in its original form.” This is a radical departure from Trump’s previous position that Ukraine had no cards to play with and simply had no alternative but to trade land for peace. But the operative part of President Trump’s statement above is: ” with the support of the European Union”, highlighted by me. This has been widely interpreted to mean that Trump is actually “withdrawing” the US from direct involvement in any future conflict in the European theatre. If that is true, it is hugely significant for not just Ukraine but also for all of Europe. As for Russia, it will continue to face Trump’s ire through punitive tariffs and potential sanctions. But it is hard to avoid the impression that Ukraine and the Europeans are on their own, at least for now.

The Middle East (West Asia) saw its fair share of political earthquake emanating from President Trump’s actions. Trump announced a 20-point (no less!) plan on September 29 after meeting Israeli leader Netanyahu. The plan was suitably titled thus: President Donald J Trump’s Comprehensive Plan to end the Gaza Conflict. The integral text of the plan is now available on the web and it is worth going through in full. The main points are summarized below:

• Gaza to be de-radicalised and free of terror
• Hostilities to end immediately followed by release of some 48 hostages held by Hamas in return for Israel releasing 250 life-sentence prisoners and 1700 Palestinians held in detention
• Hamas to be disarmed and its members given amnesty, but Hamas to have no role in the future governance of Gaza
• Aid to resume for Gaza
• Gaza to be governed by a technical committee of Palestinians but overseen by a “Board of Peace” chaired by President Trump and people like former UK Premier Tony Blair
• An “International Stabilization Force” to deploy in Gaza, its composition is unclear
• Israel has agreed to the above plan, but Hamas is yet to agree
• There is mention of Palestinian Statehood, but it is contingent on many things like reform of Palestinian Authority (PA) , the defanging of Hamas and development taking off in Gaza
• The plan is fragile for sure, but it has to be considered as “progress” given the nature of the Middle East.

The plan leaves quite a few things vague. Its full implementation hinges on not just Hamas accepting it in toto, but also handing over all its weapons and basically calling it quits. No sooner than the plan was announced by President Trump, the Israeli leader Netanyahu expressed his opposition to a palestinian state. There is also no deadline for a withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza. Last but not least, it was impossible not to notice the return of President Trump’s son in law, Jared Kushner, who was sitting in the front row with Secretary of State Rubio and Vice President Vance. Indeed, this plan is being dubbed the Kushner-Blair plan which was apparently in the works for weeks now.

It is hard to predict whether the above plan will be successful. But President Trump deserves some credit and has surprised one and all by providing the outline of a peace deal. It is worth noting that the US has not explicitly committed either to troops on the ground as part of the International Stabilization Force or to any developmental aid. That will be left to countries in the region, to international organizations and to other donors. President Trump, despite his nominal role as Chair of the “Board of Peace”, is in effect signalling his intent to “unpivot” from the quagmire that is the Middle East.

Now that President Trump’s policy is more or less clear towards the two major theatres, namely, Europe and the Middle East, the main other thing that bears close watching is what he eventually decides vis-a-vis Indo-Pacific in general and China, in particular. That will arguably be the most momentous decision with serious implications for countries like India and others in Asia. An early indication may come in the next two weeks in the form of the National Security Strategy which will be released by the White House. We may also get a hint of things when a decision is taken on the Trump-Xi summit meeting, when & where this will take place and more crucially, what the outcome of that meeting will be. Other consequential things will also follow such as the Quad summit and who will represent the US at the summit when it does take place in India.

Slowly but surely, the bits and pieces of President Trump’s foreign and security policy are falling into place. On current evidence, it is fair to conclude that when President Trump is done and dusted, he may well have changed the course of the World.

Ambassador Dr Mohan Kumar is Director General of the newly established Motwani Jadeja Institute for American Studies at the OP Jindal Global University. Views are personal.