Originally published on 1st May, 2024

Political pundits say that the prime minister resorted to anti-Muslim hate speech instead of listing out his 10-year rule is indicative of the headwinds it is facing in the elections this time around.

BJP supporters at an election rally. Photo: X (Twitter)/@narendramodi.

No sooner did the first round of the ongoing parliamentary elections end on April 19 that Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched into a diatribe, using vituperative language against India’s minorities. This was surprising: instead of taking the opportunity to showcase the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance government’s achievements, the country’s chief executive sought to target the Muslims.

The question that sprang up in the minds of political analysts was why Modi would take to Muslim bashing so early in the BJP’s electoral campaign. It is not that Modi’s acolytes refrained from the ‘M’ word – sometimes obliquely and more often unabashedly – in the 2019 electoral campaign. The PM joined in the last two phases, leaving political pundits to conclude that the “worst was reserved for the last”. The BJP posted a handsome figure of 303 in the 17th Lok Sabha.

The PM’s outburst this time was rightly and roundly criticised as “hate speech” but the already discredited Election Commission allowed it to pass. No action was considered.

Only two rounds of this long and arduous campaign, especially in this blistering summer, are over. Five rounds remain. The campaign so far in general and the BJP’s in particular has been dismal. This is not to say that the BJP’s electoral juggernaut will not gather pace in the weeks to come. But something is amiss this time.

Suddenly, across the BJP, there is no word of crossing the 400-seat threshold. A formidable target should ideally be matched by a robust campaign. A Modi wave, cresting on governance and development, should carry the BJP through. And yet the ruling party’s ‘star campaigner’ had to resort to minority-bashing, as if that is the BJP’s sine qua non.

A CSDS-Lokniti study on 150 songs on YouTube and 11 dailies has revealed that the BJP has emphasised PM Modi’s charisma as the platform for campaigning for the 2024 elections. And yet, there are reports of a lacklustre Modi campaign. Unlike 2014 and 2019, voters this time are not getting carried away the putative Modi magic.

CSDS-Lokniti’s Yogendra Yadav is apprehensive that the Modi wave will not be able to sweep away livelihood issues (Missing Modi wave). He said that this time the BJP will probably not secure as many seats as projected by the party leadership.

A starker report from the Moradabad constituency in Uttar Pradesh showed that BJP cadres had to knock on the doors of Hindu voters to come out and vote, but to no avail (No wave, Voter apathy and a Dead candidate). The karyakartas admitted that they were able to persuade only a few.

On the other hand, Muslim and Dalit voters, essentially Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party loyalists, were more enthusiastic. Burqa-clad women were walking confidently to the polling booths. Young men and women from the minority communities agreed that apparently BJP might return to power, but they wanted to dent the party’s prospects as much as they could.

Given this situation, one wonders whether ‘400 ke paar’ is even a near possibility.

A CSDS-Lokniti pre-poll survey 2024 reported that they found almost 42% of their respondents agreed that the current government has done “good work’ (Modi’s Popularity Sustains).

The JAM trinity (Jan Dhan – AADHAR – Mudra Loan) has increased Narendra Modi’s ratings manifold. The survey further reports that 18% of the respondents appeared to be satisfied with the welfare schemes. The Pradhan Mantri Mudra Yojana (PMMY) has supported and revitalised MSMEs in the last 9 years (Mudra Yojana).

Unemployed Youth

There are 1.8 crore first-time voters this year (Young Voters). There is little we hear about these come of age voters who will exercise their choice for the first time.

ILO-IHR report shows that India has an appalling number of young individuals who are neither in school nor employed (Youth Unemployment). Almost 83% of youth in India are unemployed report says. This issue is bypassed by the ruling party as incomplete data, since it does not account for people employed in the informal sector.

Young graduates, after 15 years of formal schooling, cannot choose to work in the informal sector. Hence, the number of unemployed youth are more in urban than rural areas (Unemployment in Indian States). Respondents in the PRL survey, mostly from urban areas, pointed out unemployment as an important issue affecting their choice of candidate in the elections. However, no clear mandate is available from either side.

Although youth figures in GYAN formula, which is BJP’s four-pronged strategy for 2024, there is no policies, schemes laid out other than a highly mundane slogan “if you are 18, why are you waiting, come for voting”. Other than changing the regular campaign language from Hindi to English and organising Yuva Chaupal there is nothing else on offer (GYAN) .

Inclusive Governance

Sectarian policies followed by the government may affect the BJP campaign. The emphasis on prioritising issues such as inclusivity, harmony and efficient service delivery underscores evolving public expectations of governance.

The 2024 CSDS-Lokniti pre-poll survey reports that there is an overwhelming support for the idea that India belongs to all religions (Support for Religious Pluralism).

Around 17% of respondents in the PRL survey said that they prefer communal harmony and that would matter most while voting. Minority rights should be protected, and societal divisions reduced. The implementation of the Citizenship (Amendment) Act (CAA) prior to election might yield mixed results.A survey conducted by the students of Policy Research Lab (PRL) of O P Jindal Global University also found that 44% of the respondents mentioned better service delivery as the topmost issue for them in choosing the next government. Rather than doling out freebies, they would want to see an overall improvement of the basic amenities like water, health, sanitation, housing, roads, etc.

Institutions and Accountability

The pre-poll survey by CSDS-Lokniti (CSDS-Lokniti Survey) , shows that Narendra Modi does not suffer from any anti-incumbency in the Lok Sabha polls. However, one can sense ‘negative sentiments’ in the air.

Since 2019, public trust in the electoral mechanisms has declined evidently. The data indicates a stark shift over the past five years, with trust in the ECI plummeting from more than half of respondents to less than three out of every ten. This erosion of trust could have several implications for the BJP’s electoral prospects in this General Election.

Our current government has been critiqued for its centralized tendencies. Starting from GST to One State One Election, most of its policies have been directed towards curbing federal autonomy. A recent article highlights that there is little to almost no data on President sending back any bill to the parliament for reconsideration (No Data on President Returning Files).

Opposition parties have constantly blamed the ruling government for misusing institutions like ED and CBI to intimidate others. The parade of opposition leaders going to jail kind of lends some credence to these allegations. This also reveals some form of fear and inconfidence in the ruling camp. Although our hon’ble PM has been sloganeering ‘is baar, char sau ke paar’, yet in action this confidence is missing.

Incoherent Opposition

UPA-2 government that was at the centre from 2004-2014 broke the trust of the people.

A lack-lustre government with underperforming ministers like Sharad Pawar, Anand Sharma, Mamata Banerjee, S.M. Krishna, UPA-I somehow managed to swim over to the second term.

In 2024, the INDIA alliance has not been able to table any Common Minimum Programme. Recently, Rahul Gandhi spoke on the caste census, using the slogan ‘Jitni Abadi Utna Haq’.

But there was no clarity on the objective of this exercise and how it might benefit the people. Congress leader Abhishek Manu Singhvi took a jibe at it, saying that it will lead to majoritarianism if resources are decided based on population size (Caste-Census).

Only 0.05 percent of respondents in the PRL survey said they might consider voting for INDIA candidates.

Not yet over

Garnering 400 seats may be a long shot but repeating past outcomes is a possibility. The pro-reform stance of the present government has won many hearts but not all. Neither did Ram Mandir consecration create a pan-India sentiment.

Although the BJP has an edge with its welfarist policies and a weak opposition, rising unemployment and inflation will remain an irritant unless treated.

Swetasree Ghosh Roy, Professor of Political Science, Jindal School of Government and Public Policy, O.P. Jindal University. Adrija Ganguly and Anagha S, MA students from Jindal School of Government and Public Policy, O.P. Jindal University.