Jharkhand ka Faisla

Samriddhi Jharkhand Election Blog

Jharkhand ka Faisla

Samriddhi Ratan

With assembly elections in Jharkhand scheduled to be held in on November 13 and November 20, the NDA and INDIA’s fates hang in the balance.

The burning issues in the upcoming assembly elections are shaping up to be, the “illegal infiltration, as the Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) alleges, in the Santhal Pargana region, as well as a contest of welfare and development.

Although the Lok Sabha elections held earlier this year strengthens BJP’s bid to form a government in the state, one dominant factor remains – no poll in the state has ever given a single party an outright majority.

This means that the state has been prey to several weak coalition governments, with three instances of the President’s rule being imposed on the state, which has seen seven Chief Ministers across 11 governments since being carved out of Bihar in the year 2000.

In the context of the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), which is contesting the assembly polls in alliance with the Congress, Hemant Soren’s party suffered a major setback with the chief minister, who is also the party’s working president, tendering his resignation anticipating his arrest in February this year,.

Soren was taken into custody by the Enforcement Directorate on charges of corruption. This was the latest blow to the party.

Following this, party leader Champai Soren replaced Hemant for the time that he was in custody. Champai is a veteran politician and JMM leader and was a close confidante of the party patriarch and Hemant’s father, Shibu Soren.

However, with Hemant’s release after being granted bail in July, he again returned to the chief ministerial position, with Champai being replaced. While claiming that this was “humiliation”, Champai rebelled against this move, showcasing his reluctance to step down as the CM, and left the JMM, later joining the BJP.

The switch over is supposed to have a huge impact on the upcoming polls.

Presently, the BJP will be gearing up to forge an alliance which would embolden its chances in the polls, and lower the chances of the incumbent INDIA bloc government by building  a narrative that would play against it.

The party has contacted the All-Jharkhand Students Union and the Janata Dal (United) to form a pre-poll alliance. Assam CM Himanta Biswa Sarma, who is also BJP’s election-in-charge for Jharkhand, had earlier clarified that the AJSU might be given nine to 11 seats, while the JD(U) could contest on two. Apart from these, the BJP is also trying to take Chirag Pawan’s Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) in the wagon.

The JMM-Congress, which has already announced the seat-sharing agreement, seem to be on the backfoot, with the third party in their alliance, the Rashtriya Janta Dal, expressing their dissatisfaction with the distribution.

The one region which could be a difficult task to conquer for the BJP is the 14-seat Kolhan area in southern Jharkhand, where it had seen a complete wipeout in the previous polls. There is a silver lining with the induction of Champai Soren, who has been fielded from the Saraikela assembly constituency in the Kolhan region. This could help the party make a comeback in the area.

The party is also looking to field senior leader Arjun Munda from Kolhan, highlighting the BJP’s focus to win majority seats in the region.

Another region which has turned into a battleground of narratives is Santhal Pargana, wherein the BJP has alleged “land grabbing by Bangladesh infiltrators”. The JMM has hit back at the BJP with claims that the party is trying to “hide its own failure” and pass it off as the current government’s.

The primary poll plank of the JMM is welfare, with the tribal party listing out the main projects it has carried out during its tenure. The JMM has spoken about – the increased beneficiaries of pension schemes, Sarkar Aapke Dwar camps, Rs 1000 for underprivileged women of the 18-50 age group and employment opportunities.

It is also important to look at the previous polls to gauge the results for this one. With the ‘Modi wave’ playing a role in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP won 12 out of the 14 seats that the saffron party contest, with no alliance. It took more than 40 per cent of the vote share in the state.

The Opposition, with the Congress, JMM and Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) in alliance, could only bag two seats, with a vote share of 24.6 per cent. The Congress was contesting on nine seats, the JMM on four, and the RJD fielded its candidate in one constituency.

Local and regional parties, namely the All Jharkhand Students’ Union (AJSU), as well as former CM Babulal Marandi’s party – Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (Prajatantrik) – contested independently. They could not win any seats, and their vote share remained at  3.8% (AJSU) and 12.3%  (JVM), respectively.

However, for the Assembly polls, despite having formed a coalition government in the state from 2013 to 2014, the JMM, Congress and RJD could not reach on an agreement for alliance. Similarly, the BJP too could not form an alliance with the AJSU, despite holding talks.

The results gave the BJP the edge, with the saffron party winning 37 seats in the 81-member Jharkhand Assembly. The party had, however, underperformed in comparison to its Lok Sabha performance. The BJP tied up with the JVM, which had bagged nine seats and held a vote share of 9.99 per cent.

Their combined wins of 45 seats helped the alliance cross the majority mark and form a government.

The BJP then gave Jharkhand its first non-tribal chief minister, Raghubar Das, who then led the state’s first government that went on to complete its full term.

The tables turned in the 2019 Assembly elections, which witnessed the JMM-Congress-RJD alliance gaining an upper hand, with 47 seats, and crossing the 41-seat majority mark. The alliance had a vote share of 35.4 per cent.

Hemant Soren became the Chief Minister of Jharkhand for the second time. If not for his arrest, he was set to become the second CM to complete his full term in the state.

On the other hand, the BJP again contested the elections independently, and won 25 seats, gaining 33.4 per cent of the vote share.

The JMM became the single largest party in Jharkhand, with 30 seats. The BJP and Congress bagged 16.