By Shreyansh Singh and Animesh Choudhury Sanyal

Abstract

The 2024 Lok Sabha Elections held special significance for not just the ruling coalition NDA, but also for the opposition gathered under the INDIA alliance. BJP, unable to secure the bare minimum to form the government on its own was a shocker for everyone. Uttar Pradesh emerged as the primary reason for the downfall of BJP in the 2024 general elections. The stark decline in BJP’s seats in UP from 62 in 2019 to 33 in 2024 general elections can be attributed to Samajwadi Party’s role in the INDIA. This article takes a deep-dive into the political dynamics of UP that made a dent in the ruling coalition. We find that complacency and mismanagement at the ground level led to its failure in UP. Given BJP’s recent feats in various state elections post Lok Sabha debacle, the question is now that will BJP play the same game of welfare politics in UP in 2027 or will focus on disciplining their cadres and candidates.

Keywords: parliamentary elections 2024; Indian elections; UP debacle; INDIA; welfare politics; labharthi.

Introduction

The 2024 Lok Sabha Elections held special significance for not just the ruling coalition NDA, but also for the opposition gathered under the INDIA alliance. The election results would have made waves regardless of whether the NDA, with BJP as its flag bearer, achieving a third consecutive victory or if the INDIA alliance made a significant dent in the national political landscape, enough to form a new government.

The results came as a surprise for the INDIA alliance, which secured an impressive tally of 234 seats in the 2024 general elections. For the NDA, particularly the BJP, it was a shock as the alliance managed to win only 293 seats, with BJP’s tally being reduced from 303 seats in 2019 general elections to just 240 seats this time. These numbers fell far short of BJP’s election campaign slogan of ‘Abki baar 400 paar and also for achieving legislative majority to form the government. Consequently, BJP had to join hands with Telegu Desam of Chandrababu Naidu and Nitish Kumar’s JD (U) to form the government. After receiving a significant setback, the BJP, in close collaboration with RSS returned to its strategic drawing board room to make crucial adjustments.

These changes were planned not only to reinforce its Hindutva ideology but also to align with the idea of “Labharti Vikas” (development for the benefit of the people). In the backdrop of increasing pressure, the BJP implemented a series of rapid policy shifts and critical political measures, particularly in states where assembly elections were impending. The revamped political modifications paid off, leading to BJP securing resounding victories in the state assembly elections of Haryana, Chattissgarh, Maharashtra, and more recently, Delhi. These subsequent victories seemingly signal that the party seems to be gradually recovering from its 2024 Lok Sabha Polls setback. However, it is essential to take a step back and carefully analyse the outcome of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, particularly in Uttar Pradesh, as it emerged as a pivotal moment in the shifting political dynamics of India.

Weakest Link – UP

Uttar Pradesh emerged as the primary reason for the downfall of BJP in the 2024 general elections, as Uttar Pradesh is the largest state having 80 Lok Sabha seats which is the highest in any state and sends the most number of MPs to Lok Sabha. Since after independence itself, Uttar Pradesh has long remained at the centre of political landscape of India, having playing a major role in the formation of central governments and with a historical record of having sent 9 out of 14 Prime Ministers in India so far, which signifies the importance which the state holds. UP shares borders with the neighbouring states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, and Haryana where BJP performed exceedingly well in the 2024 general elections, unlike in Uttar Pradesh.

The stark decline in BJP’s seats in UP from 62 in 2019 to just 33 in 2024 general elections can be attributed to several factors. Primary one being the strategic coalition of INDIA alliance under which Samajwadi Party and Congress were the major alliance partners in UP, contesting on 62 and 17 seats respectively, with Trinamool Congress contesting on one seat as well. In contrast to its 18.11% vote share in 2019’s Uttar Pradesh’s Lok Sabha Polls, Samajwadi Party increased its vote share to 33.59%, while Congress increased its vote share from 6.3% in 2019 to over 9% in 2024.

A key factor in Samajwadi Party’s success proved to be the ‘Pichda, Dalit, Alpsankhyak’ (PDA) strategy, under which SP chief Akhilesh Yadav distributed tickets to Yadav OBCs only on 5 seats, whereas distributed 27 tickets to candidates belonging to non yadav OBCs. SP also fielded 4 Muslim candidates, 11 general candidates, and 15 Dalit candidates. The PDA strategy helped SP gain 25 seats in reserved OBC constituencies and six seats in constituencies having large Muslim population. Samajwadi Party made significant inroads in eastern UP, gaining 18 seats in the region, which is represented by Prime Minister Modi (Varanasi) and and Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath (Gorakhpur).

The eastern region of UP boasts a large population of non-Yadav OBCs and Dalits. In addition to the PDA strategy, Rahul Gandhi’s promise of giving Rs 1 Lakh annually to poor women under the ‘Nari Nyay’ scheme appeared to resonate more with women voters on the ground and can be reflected from the figure where in 12 out of 17 seats in UP, where female voter turnout exceeded male voter turnout, INDIA Bloc secured a victory. Congress emerged victorious in Rae Barelily and Amethi, while SP triumphed in Ambedkarnagar, Pratapgarh, Sultanpur, Basti, Sant Kabir Nagar, Azamgarh, Jaunpur, Salempur, Lalganj and Machhlishahr. The contrast in the BJP and INDIA Bloc’s campaigning style was very evident, where contrary to only holding grand rallies like BJP, SP and Congress laid more emphasis towards direct outreach to local communities and addressing their issues, which was also evident in Priyanka Gandhi’s campaigning in Amethi and Rae Bareli where instead of holding large rallies, she chose to conduct around 20 “nukkad sabhas” daily, which bolstered her connect with the regional issues of the people.

The deeper trends of 2024 Lok Sabha elections can be further understood by examining certain key constituencies in UP and laying emphasis on the heterogeneous factors behind their outcomes. 

Ayodhya

Ayodhya remained the biggest puzzle within the political playground for the people. While the outside narrative was charged up with the establishment of Ram Temple, an airport and the Ram Path, yet the then second time sitting BJP MP Lallu Singh from Faizabad lost to the 9 time MLA Awadhesh Prasad of SP from Milkipur constituency with a margin of 54,567 votes. The loss was majorly credited to the hardships the locals faced due to the reported shortcomings in governance such as the lack of proper compensation received by traders, with many traders claiming to have just received a small amount of ₹1-2 lakhs and despite their protests, their issues weren’t addressed effectively by their representative. Local contractors claim that several big contracts in Ayodhya are being monopolized by the Gujarati contractors which sidelines the indigenous population. Majority of the shops and houses in proximity to Ayodhya Dham are being operated by the renters under a system of feudal tenancy. As per a homestay owner, when the land rates were low, the local residents were prevented from buying the shops or houses, having being told they belonged to the God. 

Additionally, the development came at a cost to the regional inhabitants as many of them are still being displaced without being provided with the promised compensation. Ostensibly, there has been an increasing number of people who are shifting towards private firms to receive reasonable compensation but they comprise of firms like Times City , in which ruling party’s politicians’ stakes were allegedly involved. It is rumored amongst the regional people there that, the firm used to purchase lands at prices below the circuit level with the local leadership being aware about the same, which was then sold to the Adani Group. Students often have to take large detours in order to reach their colleges which was a matter of considerable discontentment amongst the youngsters.

Moreover, Awadesh Prasad was not a new face for the people, having a significant hold on the ground level amongst the people. Contrary to the rising incumbency and dissatisfaction against Lallu Singh, who was not the most desired amongst the people and was even loosing the grip amongst the ideological supporters of Ram Mandir. Mahant Raju Das of Hanumangarhi temple remarked that they didn’t have anything against the BJP government; however, they had issues with the candidate’s behaviour and his alienation from the ground realities. Such behaviour was reflected from his statements where he said that he will win even if business community didn’t voted for him. Moreover, his video went viral where he talks about amending the Constitution. This created a fear psychosis regarding reservation amongst the marginalized sections of the society who had reached to a saturation with the Hindutva Politics. Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS)-Lokniti post-poll survey published in The Hindu also supported the same.

At the same time, the Pichda Dalit Alpsankhyak (PDA) campaign by the SP chief perfectly aligned within the broader context and found more resonance amongst all sections of society, primarily the marginalised sections. Subsequently, the local leadership of the BJP was aware of the undercurrents going on against Lallu Singh, yet was not alarmed. Even within the ideological fraction of BJP, there were some cracks on surface of rival fractions of Lallu Singh. Senior leaders like Vinay Katiyar, who also happened to be a pioneer of the Ram Mandir Andolan and had formed VHP youth wing and Bajrang Dal. Worldwide media coverage and developments within Ayodhya weren’t able to whitewash the discontentment against Lallu Singh, which was seen in the 2024 Lok Sabha results.

Varanasi

However, the 2024 Lok Sabha elections came as a huge shock for BJP and Modi, not only from the perspective of overall mandate of the general assembly elections, but rather also from the perspective of a significant drop in the votes casted to Modi versus the remarkable increase in the votes casted to the INDIA alliance candidate Ajay Rai. Modi secured 612,970 (54.24%) votes whereas Ajay Rai secured 460,457 (40.74%) votes. There is a notable dip of 9.4% in Modi’s 2024 vote share of 54.24% from the 2019 vote share of 63.6%. However, the real stark difference came in terms of the steep fall in victory margins, having fallen to just 13.5% in 2024, from the victory margin of 36.1% and 45.2% in 2014 and 2019. 

Apart from taking active participation in important events such as PM Modi’s roadshow or rally, the cadre of BJP’s allied organisations such as RSS, VHP and Bajrang Dal was not very active on the ground and was largely absent from other important regional political campaigns including the key campaigns like door to door campaigning. Even the ‘Mool BJP Karyakarta’ in Varanasi was highly demoralised with the top leadership and was not in complete sync with the central campaign due to several key issues such as the work of grass-root BJP workers not being done by the Yogi administration, lateral entries into BJP taking important positions in organisation, growing interference of the Gujrat lobby of BJP in important decisions pertaining to campaigning and Karyakartas. Slogans such as ‘Ab ki baar 400 paar’ created a perception amongst many BJP voters in Varanasi that Modi will easily secure a landslide victory even this time and hence, didn’t turn up to vote for Modi like they did in the previous two elections. 

BJP failed to make an impressive stride in favour of PM Modi’s image in Varanasi, despite incurring almost twice on election campaign expenditure than Ajay Rai. The expenditure incurred in the 2019 elections by Narendra Modi was Rs 49,26,878 which was less than that of Ajay Rai who spent around 50,08,500 that came off on a losing cause. Although the money spent on 2024 elections by Ajay Rai was Rs 26,36,988 almost half this time, while Modi’s expenditure on 2024 elections was Rs 70,69,457. It showcases a significant decline in expenditure with a much narrow gap in election result than before. 

Ajay Rai and it’s INDIA alliance members from Samajwadi Party left no stone unturned to expose the Modi and Yogi government, when it came to criticising Modi for favouring his Gujrat lobby friends and the poor plight of Pushkar Pond in Varanasi. He alleged, ‘Modi ke Gujrati dost karodon rupya dakaar gaye Pushkar talab ki safai ke naam pe.” Ajay Rai and the INDIA alliance also played the battle on the grounds of identity where Modi was successfully projected as being an ‘Outsider’ to Kashi and Ajay Rai being an ‘Insider’ to Kashi. Congress further doubled down on this narrative by coming up with popular slogans like ‘Kashi ki Rai’ which was also aligning with the secularised concept idea of India which projected Hindutva propagated by Modi and BJP as problematic. There is a significant increase in the 2024 votes polled for Ajay Rai across all the 5 urban and rural sub constituencies of Varanasi. However, there is a remarkable rise in the 2024 votes polled for Ajay Rai in the rural constituencies of Varanasi namely Rohaniya and Sevapuri, which symbolises the smooth transfer of Yadav votes of Samajwadi Party to Congress, and new votes polled from other communities such as Muslims, Dalits, Bhumihars and Patels. the popular Congress campaign of ‘Haath badlega halaat’ was spread effectively on ground by the INDI alliance workers and the candidate Ajay Rai. Through the social media narratives, Congress was fairly successful in picking the shortcomings of Yogi and Modi government, and popularise the narrative of Modi as an ‘Outsider’ from Gujarat and disruptor of the ‘Pauranic Nagri’ due to his imposed development projects in the city which were disconnected with the essence and spirit of Varanasi. 

Amethi

The result of 2024 Amethi elections might’ve come across as a surprise for the national media; however, as per the residents of Amethi and the regional media coverage, Smriti Irani was relatively struggling during her campaigns, with her own regional BJP cadre not sharing the same fervour as her on the ground. Some issues such as the regional unit of the party not being in complete sync with the way of functioning of her created the rift.

In various interviews and surveys done there, upon being asked, the residents revealed many grievances including the failure of providing necessities such as sugar, gas cylinders, and ration at a regulated price, dealing with the rampant issue of the stray cattle, etc. Several farmers have reported to have stopped growing oilseeds and pulses altogether. However, one of the big setback which came before Smriti Irani was the order of the Allahabad High Court directing the state administration to reopen Sanjay Gandhi Hospital, which was closed on the grounds of medical negligence. The hospital had played a pivotal role in delivering medical services to the poor patients who couldn’t afford being transported to seek treatment in Lucknow or in nearby AIIMS in Rae Bareli. 

It was a wise tactic of Congress to replace Rahul Gandhi with Kishori Lal Sharma, a close aide and confidant of the Gandhi family who had worked with Rajiv Gandhi and had a firm understanding of the political landscape in Amethi. With Rahul Gandhi no longer being in the centre stage, Smriti Irani seemed to have lost the central narrative of launching aggressive attacks on Rahul Gandhi. Kishori Lal Sharma wasted no time in covering as much ground as he could have by kick starting his campaign way before than the Smriti Irani camp, which later on paid him a rich dividend in form of securing a significant victory with a difference of 1,67,196 votes over Smriti Irani.

Kishori Lal Sharma, with the help and support of Gandhi family, galvanised the local Congress cadre into swift action and active participation in the outreach and campaign for him. Priyanka Gandhi’s extended two week campaign in the circuit of Amethi and Rae Bareli really helped Kishori Lal Sharma to gain rigorous support of the party’s regional cadre, without any infighting in their own camp. Kishori Lal Sharma performed exceedingly well in the Vidhan Sabha constituencies such as Salon, Jagdishpur and Tiloi where Smriti Irani lost by over 52,318 votes, 18118 votes, and 15519 votes respectively. Apart from the Dalit and OBC voters, even the upper caste voters belonging from Kshatriya and Brahmin community didn’t turn up to vote in big numbers in the favour of Smriti Irani. Several Pradhans, speaking on the condition of anonymity, shared that due to fear of politically motivated actions against them by the administration, they are publicly lending support to Smriti Irani, but in reality, they are backing Kishori Lal Sharma. 

Furthermore, the lack of strong support from Sanjay Singh, who belongs to the royal family of Amethi resulted in further losses for Smriti Irani. As per a regional BJP executive, the cold ties between Sanjay SIngh and Smriti Irani is not something recent, but rather it dates back to the times of 2022 UP State Assembly elections. One of the reasons behind Sanjay Singh’s loss was also credited to the lack of coordination from the end of MP’s camp. From the outcome of the popular Lok Sabha contest in Amethi, the overarching sentiment of dissent amongst the voters of Amethi can be summed up in the words of a local kirana store owner, ‘Humne pichli baar Rahul Gandhi ko harane ke liye Smriti Madam ji ko vote kiya thaa par iss baar hum unhe harane ke liye Kishori Lal Ji ko vote denge’.

Allahabad

One of the key constituencies where Congress ended its 40 year long dry run is Allahabad.. Over the past two decades, the contest on this seat used to be really close with an average winning margin of 73,799 votes. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, under the INDIA Alliance seat sharing formula, Congress fielded former Allahabad MP Revati Raman Singh’s son, Ujjwal Raman Singh, who switched to Congress from SP before the elections. Ujjwal Raman Singh landed a defeat to BJP’s candidate Neeraj Tripathi by over 58,000 votes in a close face off. However, this feat wouldn’t have been truly achieved without a successful and planned coordination between Congress and Samajwadi Party where Congress largely benefited from the presence of an existing strong cadre of Samajwadi Party in Allahabad.

Many supporters of the 2019-2024 BJP MP Rita Bahuguna Joshi were not very keen to actively participate in the meetings and rallies held by Neeraj Tripathi. They also didn’t launch an open protest against the BJP top leadership’s choice of a new candidate but rather, they chose to remain in the backseat, deciding not to fully lend support to the new candidate choice. Ujjwal Raman Singh was also successful in striking a cord amongst the voters by bringing forth various pertinent issues such as the failure of the ruling government to revive the industrial area of Naini, absence of an AIIMS hospital in the city, despite having a large population of lower and middle class people living there.

Allahabad, since long has remained a coaching hub where students across different neighbouring cities come to prepare for distinct government exams, and Ujjwal Raman Singh was successful in utilising the voice of young voters against the state BJP government on the burning issues of the frequent government exam paper leaks in the state. 

Kannauj

Kannauj emerged as a battle of prestige for Akhilesh Yadav as the constituency has been a strong bastion of Samajwadi Party since 1998, barring the much talked about 2019 Lok Sabha election outcome where the SP chief Akhilesh Yadav’s wife Dimple Yadav was defeated by the BJP candidate Subrat Pathak in a very close fight by just 12,353 votes. 

Subrat Pathak has been active in the regional politics of Kannauj district since around two decades and gave a strong fight against Dimple Yadav in 2014 Kannauj Lok Sabha election too, gathering 4,69,257 votes as opposed to 4,89,164 votes received by Dimple Yadav, leading her to win by a narrow margin of 19,907 votes. However, for the 2024 Lok Sabha election, Akhilesh Yadav took charge in his own hands and was successful in defeating Subrat Pathak by a significant margin by 1,70,922 votes.

The victory of SP in Kannauj can be attributed to several reasons including the popularity and connect of Akhilesh Yadav with the demands of young voters, resentment against the central government amongst a large chunk of perfume traders due to the high GST tax imposed on ingredients of attar (perfume). This became a relevant issue in the circle of perfume traders who hold a decent grip on the political dynamics of Kannauj since the district is famously known for its Attar industry. Additionally, BJP candidate Subrat Pathak found himself embroiled in many controversies frequently, whether it be having a scuffle with the police administration or with his own regional party cadre.

Several fractions of local BJP workers were not very impressed with their MP’s temper and reportedly distanced themselves from Subrat Pathak’s campaign. In a subsequent turn of events, an infamous call recording between former UP government minister and current BJP politician from Kannauj, Sushil Pal and Subrat Pathak was leaked, where the latter was recorded to be indirectly issuing a warning to Sushil Pal against the consequences of fighting for the BJP ticket from Kannauj. Instances like the above revealed the discord within BJP’s own cadre in the region. 

With Akhilesh Yadav himself coming to contest from Kannauj, voters decided to pin their aspirations to a more influential candidate like him, which was echoed in the comment of a cable operator, ‘Akhilesh se umeed hai ki Kannauj me bhi Saifai jaisi vyavasthayein laa denge’. 

INDIA Alliance’s Gains in Uttar Pradesh: Capitalizing on Shifting Social Dynamics

INDIA Block Alliance emerged successful in winning many key constituencies with significant populations of Kurmi and Rajbhar communities, including Ghazipur, Chandauli, Ballia, Azamgarh, Salempur, Robertsganj and Lalganj. The alliance of BJP with Apna Dal (Soneylal) and Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Party didn’t prove to be very fruitful for BJP as they lost in the above key mentioned constituencies too, where Rajbhar and Kurmi votes are dominant in number.

After the Lok Sabha Polls debacle in UP, UP Cabinet Minister and President of NDA alliance partner Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Party, Om Prakash Rajbhar was quoted commenting on the shift in voting patterns. He said “Each caste group opted to vote for their own candidate, regardless of the alliance of party. The potential of many leaders of all parties in U.P. Including BJP, coming from a specific caste to transfer votes of their social group has dropped considerably as opposed to the 2014 or 2017 assembly polls. Since the Samajwadi Party (SP)-led INDIA alliance distributed several tickets to Kurmi, Maurya, Shakya, and Kushwaha, the votes of these social groups moved towards them in many key constituencies. The shift in voting was based more on caste alignment and was not towards the SP.” 

Apart from the above in depth examination of the 2024 Lok Sabha results in Uttar Pradesh, it’s also pertinent to look at the close contests where BJP faced a narrow face off against INDIA Bloc and was able to secure victory by a narrow gap of less than 50,000 votes. The table highlights the underlying anxieties of BJP, where,  had it lost in these constituencies, it would’ve been the biggest Lok Sabha Polls for the party in Uttar Pradesh. 

18 Constituencies where BJP won lower than the margin of 50,000 votes

Parliament Constituency	Winning Candidate	Winning Candidate Votes	Runner-up Candidate	Runner-Up Candidate Votes	Runner-up Candidate Party	Margin
Farrukhabad(40)	MUKESH RAJPUT	487963	DR. NAVAL KISHOR SHAKYA	485285	SP	2678
Bansgaon(67)	KAMLESH PASWAN	428693	SADAL PRASAD	425543	INC	3150
Phulpur(51)	PRAVEEN PATEL	452600	AMAR NATH SINGH MAURYA	448268	SP	4332
Meerut(10)	ARUN GOVIL	546469	SUNITA VERMA	535884	SP	10585
Aligarh(15)	SATISH KUMAR GAUTAM	501834	BIJENDRA SINGH	486187	SP	15647
Kanpur(43)	RAMESH AWASTHI	443055	ALOK MISRA	422087	INC	20968
Hardoi(31)	JAI PRAKASH	486798	USHA VERMA	458942	SP	27856
Amroha(9)	KANWAR SINGH TANWAR	476506	KUNWAR DANISH ALI	447836	INC	28670
Misrikh(32)	ASHOK KUMAR RAWAT	475016	SANGITA RAJVANSHI	441610	SP	33406
Bareilly(25)	CHHATRA PAL SINGH GANGWAR	567127	PRAVEEN SINGH ARON	532323	SP	34804
Deoria(66)	SHASHANK MANI	504541	AKHILESH PRATAP SINGH	469699	INC	34842
Maharajganj(63)	PANKAJ CHAUDHARY	591310	VIRENDRA CHAUDHARY	555859	INC	35451
Unnao(33)	SWAMI SACHCHIDANAND HARI SAKSHI	616133	ANNU TANDON	580315	SP	35818
Domariyaganj(60)	JAGDAMBIKA PAL	463303	BHISHMA SHANKAR ALIAS KUSHAL TIWARI	420575	SP	42728
Fatehpur Sikri(19)	RAJKUMAR CHAHAR	445657	RAMNATH SINGH SIKARWAR	402252	INC	43405
Bhadohi(78)	DR. VINOD KUMAR BIND	459982	LALITESHPATI TRIPATHI	415910	TMC	44072
Akbarpur(44)	DEVENDRA SINGH ALIAS BHOLE SINGH	517423	RAJARAM PAL	473078	SP	44345
Gonda(59)	KIRTIVARDHAN SINGH	474258	SHREYA VERMA	428034	SP	46224

Source: ECI

A large number of Union Ministers from UP in the Modi government 2.0 lost their respective constituencies in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. The table underscores the disconnect between the public and their respective representatives. 

Parliamentary Constitiuency	Candidate Name	Candidate Previous Post	Votes	Winning  Candidate Name	Party	Votes	Margin
Amethi	Smriti Irani	Women and Child Development Minister	372032	Kishori Lal Sharma	INC	539228	167196
Mohanlalganj	Kaushal Kishore	Minister of State for Housing and Urban Affairs	597577	R.K. Chaudhary	SP	667869	70292
Chandauli	Mahendra Nath Pandey	Union minister for Heavy Industries	4,52,911	Birendra Singh	SP	4,74,476	21,565
Kheri	Ajay Mishra Teni	Union Minister of State for Home Affairs	523036	Utkarsh Verma	SP	557365	34329
Muzaffarnagar	Sanjeev Balyan	Minister of State – Fisheries, Animal Husbandry and Dairying	446049	Harendra Singh Malik	SP	470721	24,672
Jalaun	Bhanu Singh Verma	Union Minister of State for MSME	476282	Narayan Das Ahirwar	SP	530180	53,898
Fatehpur	Sadhvi Niranjan Jyoti	Union Minister of State, Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution and Ministry of Rural Development	467129	Naresh Chandra Uttam Patel	SP	500328	33199

Source: ECI

Conclusion

The BJP’s political slogan of ‘Ab ki baar 400 paar’ was met with serious allegations from INDIA Bloc, accusing the BJP of trying to amend the Constitution and dismantle the reservations established by Dr. B.R. Ambedkar. Much of these accusations stemmed from the careless statements of several BJP leaders regarding the desire to strike a majority of more than 400 seats to amend the constitution. The Samajwadi Party and Congress both benefited from their coalition under the INDIA Bloc banner, since many Dalit voters, who traditionally voted for Congress shifted in favour of Samajwadi Party. While Congress, despite having a weak grassroots presence, effectively leveraged the strong cadre of Samajwadi Party to mobilise votes for its own candidates.

The non-yadav OBC’s who had shifted away from SP to BJP over the past decade, made a comeback to the Samajwadi Party in the 2024 Lok Sabha Polls; however, it remains to be seen in the future polls whether their ideological allegiance remains with Samajwadi Party in future elections or not.

The declining performance of BSP in the recent Lok Sabha Polls benefited the Samajwadi Party upto a great deal as a large share of BSP’s non Jatavs core voters shifted to the INDIA Bloc, due to a lack of confidence in BSP’s ability to defend their constitutional rights against the ruling party. This diminishing trust in the BSP can be attributed to reasons such as Mayawati’s recent  political stances which were deemed as non aggressive towards BJP and also because of the majority of BSP MP’s drifting away to either BJP or Samajwadi Party.

The over reliance of BJP on the politically charged Ram Mandir narrative of Ram Mandir for both ideological and electoral gains eventually proved to be futile, since BJP failed to even secure victory in the Faizabad seat, let alone win all 79 seats as claimed by their leadership.

According to a detailed 15-page internal report, the primary reasons behind the 2024 Lok Sabha Polls debacle of BJP in Uttar Pradesh included remarks made by ruling party’s leaders about constitutional amendments, the pertinent issue of frequent paper leaks in competitive exams, discontentment among party workers against their state administration, and hasty ticket distribution. As per the regional BJP leadership, the alleged involvement of a senior journalist in the ticket distribution, without taking the state leadership into confidence was one of the major factors behind the poor ticket distribution. Ultimately, the results of the recent Lok Sabha Polls depict that issues related to youth and constitutional safeguards matter more to voters than the grand ideological narratives like Ram Mandir consecration. The political landscape of India is undergoing through a metamorphosis, with a once seemingly invincible ruling party now facing a formidable opposition well capable of challenging it electorally, even in its stronghold territory like Uttar Pradesh.

With the 2027 Uttar Pradesh State Assembly elections approaching, it will be an uphill fight for the BJP to hold its ground against the politically praised and successful Pichda, Dalit, Alpasankhyak and Adivasi (PDA) strategy of Samajwadi Party, as well as the potential continuation of the alliance of the Congress-Samajwadi Party alliance in the state. Another notable pattern is the announcement of a plethora of free welfare schemes by the BJP in all the recent state assembly elections, which might also make its way to the forthcoming state assembly polls in Uttar Pradesh. The BJP aims to address the challenging governance issues that have emerged during the second term of Yogi Adityanath’s leadership while also preparing a major overhaul of the state’s organisational structure which includes increased representation from the OBC and Dalit communities and possibly nominating a Dalit leader as State President in an attempt to reclaim the support of OBC and Dalit voters who made a shift to the INDIA alliance in the recent general elections.

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7. ‌ Sharda, S. (2024, June 4). Resurgent Congress scripts comeback tale in Uttar Pradesh; vote share too goes up. The Times of India; Times Of India. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/lucknow/resurgent-congress-makes-a-strong-comeback-in-uttar-pradesh-with-significant-increase-in-vote-share/articleshow/110716588.cms
8. ‌ 2024 UP turnaround explained in India Today’s Election Intelligence graphics. (2024, June 5). India Today. https://www.indiatoday.in/elections/lok-sabha/story/samajwadi-party-congress-uttar-pradesh-lok-sabha-election-results-pda-ticket-distribution-rajput-anger-2549210-2024-06-05
9. ‌ Mutiny in Awadh: The Story of Uttar Pradesh and the 2024 Lok Sabha Elections. (2024). The Wire. https://thewire.in/politics/mutiny-in-awadh-the-story-of-uttar-pradesh-and-the-2024-lok-sabha-elections
10. ‌ Kumar, A. (2024, June 4). Uttar Pradesh Election Results 2024: U.P.’s western region proved to be the wind vane of the State. The Hindu. https://www.thehindu.com/elections/lok-sabha/ups-western-region-proved-to-be-the-wind-vane-of-the-state/article68252487.ece
11. ‌ Sen, R., & Khattri, R. (2019). The BJP Debacle in Uttar Pradesh – NUS Institute of South Asian Studies (ISAS). Nus.edu.sg. https://www.isas.nus.edu.sg/papers/the-bjp-debacle-in-uttar-pradesh/
12. ‌ Yadav, S., & Pandey, B. (2024, June 5). Disconnect on ground, ticket distribution, caste, jobs: How BJP lost the plot in UP. The Indian Express. https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-politics/local-disconnect-agniveer-ticket-choice-caste-equations-how-bjp-lost-the-up-plot-uttar-pradesh-9372166/
13. ‌ Yamini. (2024, May 28). The Constitution, a surprise entrant in poll battlefield. The Hindu. https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/the-constitution-a-surprise-entrant-in-poll-battlefield/article68225687.ece

Shreyansh Singh and Animesh Choudhury Sanyal, post-graduate students of public policy, Jindal School of government and public policy, O.P. Jindal University